预测模型构建器

Build a forecasting model for [METRIC] based on this historical data. Include:
1) Trend analysis and seasonality detection
2) Forecast for next [3/6/12] months with confidence intervals
3) Key assumptions underlying the forecast
4) Factors that could change the forecast
5) Sensitivity analysis (best case, worst case, most likely)
6) Recommended model formula and methodology
7) Visualization of historical data vs. forecast

Explain model in business terms.